Market Movers

March 2nd, 2011 by Andy

Contributed by Sonja Gustafson:

Dow Jones Newswires published an interesting article two weeks ago on one national homebuilder’s announcement that it will be measuring the efficiency of all its homes.  Using what it calls an Energy Performance Guide (EPG), national homebuilder KB Homes is positioning the rating along the lines of a “miles per gallon” score we are used to seeing on cars, and hopes to use this to differentiate their homes against the competition.

Although I think the EPG is imperfect because it does not account for absolute house size (that is, a big home can get as good a score as a little one, even though the larger will consume much more energy), the idea of a homebuilder asserting a measurement of efficiency is a powerful tool for both the builder and the eventual homebuyer.  For some builders, it may be a way to differentiate their product amongst plentiful competition, or be a way to highlight the company’s fundamental values.  And for buyers, it’s just another valid piece of information that they deserve as they make a major purchase decision.  In the state of Washington, we are required to disclose if a home has a leaky roof, why not leaky walls and windows?  An EPG score may help to tease out some important information about the quality of the home.

What really strikes me about this article is the reaction of another builder who is ignoring the green position.  “I will build whatever the market demands,” says Eric Lipar, chief executive of LGI Homes, a Texas-based builder. “It’s not what the public wants.”  The sad truth is that many builders have in fact built green homes only to see buyers choose something a bit cheaper, a bit bigger, a bit lower in quality.

But.  Let’s look back in order to look forward.  Remember when the public didn’t want airbags in their cars? (I know, this dates me. If you’re too young to remember, there was a big brouhaha over the “significant” cost of adding airbags to cars).  “People aren’t demanding it”, lagging automakers said.  “They won’t pay the cost.”   Then Chrysler decided to install airbags standard across the product line, and suddenly they had both a differentiating factor that made the competition look a little slow, and also played innovative market mover. Can you even find a new car without airbags anymore?  The market didn’t initially demand them; and automakers actively fought against them.  But then, data showing crash survivability emerged and the market moved, and the laggards scrambled to catch up.

KB Homes is clearly making a bet that people will come to value green, even if over time.  They are smart to use an energy rating to assert their position with measurable data.  (We at Green Canopy are happy to see a national homebuilder take this position, one that we announced in 2009 when we chose the Energy Performance Score.)  Part of why builders have not been rewarded for green is that buyers don’t know what the heck green is.  Taking a measurable position (such as energy efficiency) takes out the mystery and makes your case that much more simple to assert.

So I believe that Mr. Lipar at LGI Homes will be one of the many laggards forced to catch up as the rest of the market uses the transparency of an energy score to tease out the information that helps them make their decisions. In this Google era, people are not asking for less information.  They are not asking for less green.  And as valuable data such as energy scoring becomes more commonplace in the residential market, we think consumers will come to demand this sort of information–and the efficiency measures that drive the scores upwards.  The market is speaking, Mr. Lipar.  Move along.

Changing Times, Changing Trends

February 21st, 2011 by Andy

Contributed by Sam Lai:

Last Tuesday’s Seattle Times article about mortgages in Seattle points a spotlight on the unhappy reality that our wounded local residential real estate market is far from back to ‘normal.’  Some argue it will never be same again.

The financial crisis, with this article being the most recent reminder, has given us the opportunity to re-think some of the inevitable market norms of the not-so-distant past.  Rather than debate the stats of the article, I want to use it as a conversation starter to talk about trends I see in the residential market from my appraisal work.  Our homes are a physical representation of our values, and a difficult economy changes our hierarchy of value.  What will the new normal look like on the home front?

McMansion vs. Not-So-Big House

Cavernous new homes, once touted as the biggest bang for the buck, may be the biggest losers in the new normal.  Homes built more for a big square foot number and less for living seem to be judged more harshly against smaller, more efficient homes with superior design quality.  Going forward, homeowners may re-purpose their large home for multi-generational housing and/or accessory rental units for additional income.

Formal Dining Room vs. Open Floor Plan

This dichotomy in design priority may be articulated as the way people really live as opposed to what people think the rich & famous are supposed to have.  Has there ever been a better dust storage facility than our traditional formal dining rooms with carpet, coffered ceilings & upholstered chairs?  The kitchen has been the heart of our homes for decades, yet we’ve just begun to acknowledge this reality in our home designs.  Greater emphasis on the practical and authentic may cause us to pause & re-think other luxury upgrades such as converting the walk-in closet into a climate-controlled wine cellar or building a 300 sq ft addition for a dedicated media room.

Hot Tub vs. Ductless Heat Pump

Saving energy (and money) seems to be a bit more fashionable these days than consuming energy.  We all want to stay warm in the winter, and a hot tub becomes very attractive on a snowy night.  But how many of those do we get? The new normal considers comfort on an every-day level, and a ductless heat pump is an energy efficient way to heat and cool a home evenly and quietly. Efficiency happens year-round, which is much more than a once-a-month hot tub dip.  It does beg the question – “Could a blower-door guided air sealing ever be sexier than a dip in a hot tub?”  Nope, I doubt it.  But it sounds like the beginning of a good joke eh?  And the fact that most of you know what air sealing is shows that this ain’t the 90’s anymore.

Ultimately, the market is beginning to value efficiency – of space, energy, resources and money – over luxury features.  Features will always be attractive, but buyers want the best option for their money – which means a focus on functionality first.  I’m excited about the new normal because it provides for more creativity and innovation in home design coupled with home performance, something Green Canopy will always strive to excel at.

How Green is Green?

February 9th, 2011 by Andy

Contributed by Aaron Fairchild:

At Green Canopy, our mission is to inspire resource efficiency in residential markets. Sounds simple, right?  The question is, though, how far should we go when we retrofit a home? Are EnergyStar appliances and efficient windows enough, or should every home come with a living roof complete with solar panels?

These decisions surface during the design phase of each retrofit, but an interesting aspect of our business model is that we have an appraiser leading the design process.  Sam, who has compared over 15,000 homes in the Seattle area, can discern when we are making a choice the market will value and when we are not. For example, rainwater catchment systems are a great way to conserve water resources, but the majority of current homebuyers will not pay more for this system.  That does not mean Green Canopy will never retrofit a home with a catchment system, but we will only do so where we believe the market will value that decision.

And just because we don’t install a specific sustainable product does not mean we forget about resource efficiency altogether; that’s our driving mission. But let’s continue with the water theme; rain gardens are also a perfect way to minimize water usage and homebuyers value them highly. Plus they can be less expensive to install if thoughtfully designed. For nearly every home we buy, Green Canopy will need to update the landscaping anyway in order make it market-ready, and so we plan to include a rain gardens when feasible. Instead of simply cleaning debris and inserting new plants, we use our landscaping budget towards a thoughtful approach for the landscape design process and therefore are able to promote resource efficiency while maximizing the beauty and utility of the yard.

So, how green is green?  For Green Canopy, our answer comes down to making sure our homes promote resource efficiency and meet Built Green’s certification standards.  We will make market-based decisions rather than choosing a specific sustainable product or feature just because it is the next cool thing.  We will inspire the market to value resource efficiency, but only in ways that make financial sense. Ultimately, the residential market will never pay attention to us if we are unable to sell homes. And we plan to grab the market’s attention.

A New Identity and Predictions for 2011

January 7th, 2011 by Andy

Contributed by Aaron Fairchild:

While we have been certain of our business model for two years, apparently we haven’t been certain about who we are. J

From our retail brand name, to our websites, to our legal entity, to the shareholder base, to our corporate location, so much of our company has changed!  The result is that we are rolling into 2011 refreshed, recharged and ready.  We are now located in Fremont, as a C-Corporation holding a homebuilding company named Green Canopy Homes with roughly 20 shareholders.  The changes have established a highly resilient, well funded and determined group, with a healthy following of fans and supporters.

2011 brings with high hopes and expectations combined with plenty of unknowns.  We anticipate our local real estate market to remain relatively flat and for interest rates to be higher.  We believe that the NWMLS will have new check boxes to list energy performance scores among other make-sense sustainability features.  We hope that the City of Seattle will announce the coming of an ordinance requiring all homes to have energy performance scores assessed at the time of sale.  We are certain that 2011 will see increased awareness of the benefits of energy efficient homes, which will translate into shorter sales cycles for Green Canopy Homes.  Lastly, keep an eye out for Green Canopy to expand its business offerings and impact in the residential market.

All the best to you in 2011!

Keeping Out the Giraffes

November 1st, 2010 by g2bhomes

Contributed by Sonja Gustafson:

What is Your Monster?

Last night was a beautiful Halloween evening; the sky was clear, the air crisp, and my neighborhood was alight with various ghosts and goblins going from door to door.   Then today came with gloomy grey skies and drenching rain, and we are faced not with the costumed monsters of our children, but the more terrifying specter of a cold, dark autumn.

This reminds me of a recent podcast I listened to where the narrator was working with his 5-year old daughter to caulk their home’s windows against drafts coming in.  The daughter watched silently as he ran the caulk along the window seams, and as their work progressed, finally asked, “Daddy, do you really think this will keep out the giraffes?”

I love the thought of that girl working out the problem in her head:  there are giraffes that want to come into our home!  Daddy is trying to protect us!  But really, how can this silly gummy stuff keep those monstrous animals out of our house?

Maybe we all have huge monsters in our minds that are keeping us from imagining how simple it really is to “keep out the giraffes.”    Or maybe it’s difficult to imagine how something as simple as caulk can make such a big difference in the comfort of a home.  And yet, take a look at the chart below to see how many areas of our home can be made more weather tight with the some simple attention. Each of these represents an opportunity to make your home more comfortable while saving money on utility bill.

Now wielding a caulk gun to ward off the drafts is not the only way to fight the energy monster, but it is one of a number of simple things you can do today to make your home more energy efficient.  In the spirit of easily keeping out the giraffes/monsters out of your home, here are 5 simple things you can do to ward off the cold and save on your energy bills:

5 Things You Can Get Done Today

  1. Buy caulk.  Then read this tutorial on how to fix leaks in your home. (You can schedule the work for this weekend!)
  2. Lower the thermostat on your hot water heater to 120°F.
  3. Install a programmable thermostat for your heating system.
  4. Air dry dishes instead of using your dishwasher’s drying cycle – let them dry overnight tonight!
  5. Use a power strip for your computer accessories, phone chargers, and other “vampire” devices and turn off the strip when you leave the room.

If after completing this list you are ready to take on more energy monsters, you should consider having an energy audit conducted on your home to more thoroughly determine ways to make your home perform to its best. (Seattle City Light customers can get a discounted audit here) You can contact your local home performance expert (Washington users can search here to find an energy auditor) to help you with next steps.

And then you’ll be keeping out those giraffes.

Green Premium?

October 6th, 2010 by g2bhomes

Contributed by Sam Lai:

Is there such a thing as a Green Premium?

This is one of the more controversial topics in the residential green development realm.  From the residential green and energy efficient advocacy perspective, we all want the answer to be unequivocally “YES!  There is a HUGE premium.”  Numerous  consumer surveys comport that a majority of Americans want green homes.  But I’m not so sure the “Green Premium” is the most accurate way to describe positive consumer response.

Let’s start from what most people think of when we say “Green Premium.”  For example, Joe the builder just finished up on an Energy Star-certified and 4 Star BuiltGreen-certified home.  Joe’s home is at the tip-top of the local market in terms of marketable appealand functional utility.  There are plenty of conventional high quality homes that have recently sold in the immediate vicinity of similar design, appeal & functional utility for $815k, $822k, $830k & the highest sale in the area $835k.  Joe and his real estate agent decide that the home might be worth about $830k if it wasn’t green.  But they decide that because there is a “Green Premium” of 6% based on a recent research study, the market value of the property should be $880k.  The definition of “Green Premium” from this example is the premium a green home yields above the competitive market.  This is a great way to not sell a house.

The question of whether or not there’s a “Green Premium” reminds me of a scene in a mockumentary movie “Spinal Tap”, where guitarist Nigel asserts that his guitar amplifier goes to eleven.

Every market has an upper threshold whether you call it 10 or 11.  From a valuation or banking perspective, if a home is superior to the rest of its market it is overbuilt because at some point the market stops responding.  Although most consumers in America desire green characteristics in their next home today doesn’t mean that they throw all other deciding factors aside.  Green characteristics are weighed alongside all other distinguishable marketable characteristics including price, functional utility, aesthetic appeal and quality.

Speaking of quality, how does the market distinguish quality in residential homes?  I would assert that our homes can be seen as an emblem of the leading cultural values of the moment.  In 1999, common characteristics for what was considered high quality new construction home would be 5,000 sq ft of living area, master suite with whale size soaking tub, “drive-through” shower and of course a gourmet kitchen with Viking range and Sub-Zero refrigerator.  Shifting values of our time are reflected in the kind of quality buyers are looking for today:  energy-efficiency, ‘quality over quantity’ and low-toxic finishes.

So, is there such a thing as a “Green Premium?”  Or, does it go to 11?  Sure, call the “tip-top” whatever you want.  We believe that green characteristics will continue to be the hallmarks of quality in residential homes into the future.  We just need to remember that people primarily buy homes for location and you can’t just slap on a “Green Premium” and expect the market to agree.   Do you agree?

Buckle Up

August 26th, 2010 by g2bhomes

Contributed by Aaron Fairchild:

Buckle up, there will be turbulence
“Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears” WSJ article said the following about the national real-estate market on Wednesday, August 25, 2010:

  • “Sales of previously owned homes fell 27.2% in July. . . Lowest level since (NAR) started tally in 1999.”
  • “Economists say sales drop…means another drop in housing prices is on horizon.”
  • “High unemployment and meager wage growth and falling home equity means depressed consumer spending.”

In the same WSJ issue the editorial page reported that national homebuilders’ stocks rallied on Wednesday as the news of the decline in home buying was announced.  Apparently investors believe the time for getting into the real estate market is now, when home prices and employment rates are at or near their bottom.

Is there really a “National Real-Estate Market”?
According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics the Seattle area unemployment rate in June was 8.6% and holding steady.  Employment in our region is anchored by desirable jobs in growing sectors of the economy.  We live in a beautiful part of the world with plenty of water, mountains and forests.  People continue to move here as the map published by Forbes (June, 2010) illustrates below.  Red lines indicate a net migration away from the city, black indicates net movement into the city.

The last time we saw more people leaving than coming to our state was in 1982 and demographers expect growth in this region to continue as unemployment, poor economies, water shortages, and desertification continue to push people out of other regions of the country.  Additionally, homes in Seattle are more affordable today than they were during the period of our local depression, where 1 in 8 people were unemployed, from 1969 to 1973.

How does all this affect G2B?
Less Competition at Acquisition
G2B continues to believe that in the near to mid-term, property values will remain flat or rise only with the rate of inflation.  This will shrink margins for investors who look to buy and hold.   The uncertainty in our real estate market will continue to drive nervous investors and speculators to the sideline leaving less competition for acquisitions of fixer properties in neighborhoods where G2B thrives.
More Competition at Sale
This situation continues to play to G2B’s strength.  G2B differentiates its homes in the direction the market is trending.  G2B designs comfort, quality, energy efficiency, and green into existing homes in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.  G2B’s differentiating design appeals to the values that homebuyers are demanding.  The current market conditions only enhance G2B’s edge when competing for precious homebuyers.
Knowing the Market with Deep Experience
G2B knows how to accurately value homes at acquisition and sale.  Having compared and evaluated over 15,000 homes in Seattle’s good and bad times gives G2B the strategic edge needed to exploit opportunity in uncertain markets and create additional value.

We are certainly living in interesting economic times.  Turbulence and uncertainty provides opportunity for smart moves and strong profits.  We are excited about this market and extremely well positioned to thrive!

Cars and Retrofits

August 3rd, 2010 by g2bhomes

Contributed by Aaron Fairchild:

Last year there were 3 home remodels marketed for sale on the NW Multiple Listing Service as a BuiltGreen certified home.  Our West Seattle home, the Sequoia House, was one of the three.  If this seems shocking to you, imagine how we felt!  Yet the trend is clear; we know that homebuyers are looking for and demanding energy efficient and green homes.

But don’t take it from us; a 2010 national AVID Builder survey indicates that green features are the most important “must have” for a future home purchase. AVID surveyed 20,000 existing homeowners and asked which features were “must haves” in their next home.  Just over 60% of surveyed homeowners pointed to green features. In 2009, 40% of all residential new-construction in the City of Seattle was certified BuiltGreen.

Yet only 3 out of roughly 5,000 existing home sales were marketed and sold BuiltGreen certified!? According to a report published by Equilibrium Capital out of Portland in April 2010, “…the biggest long-term impact economically and environmentally is retrofitting existing buildings.”

Right now G2B is out raising equity in our company.  We have calculated how much carbon is offset with one $25,000 investment in our company and the results are compelling.  The amount of carbon emissions mitigated, calculated over the lifetime of efficiency measures retrofitted in one of our homes, is equal to removing 23 cars from the road for one year.  Breaking that out per one $25,000 investment in our company is equal to roughly 6 cars over year one and 50 cars over 5 years! As one interested investor just said, “So for the cost of a Prius I can take 54 cars off the road (in five years) and get a return on my investment (as opposed to losing money on a car).  Nice.

Retrofitting and redeveloping existing buildings is done using today’s technologies and the deep efficiency measures can function optimally for 30 to 40 years!  In 40 years we will still be dealing with our transportation problems and trying to create new renewable fuel sources.   Meanwhile, our efficient homes will continue to roll along the road to sustainability.